LPL Research

In just a matter of hours last week, investors apparently decided that stocks were on sale, and it was time to buy. But nothing materially changed as consumers were still pessimistic about the future, firms were on the sidelines waiting to deploy capital amid tariff uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) remained committed to their “Wait and See” stance.

The softer tone toward China from the White House, President Trump’s pledge not to fire Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome (Jay) Powell, and renewed optimism about Fed rate cuts all helped drive a strong market rebound last week.

Wednesday is the big day when the Trump administration will provide more clarity on their tariff plans. The latest news has been a mix of encouraging talk about narrow reciprocal tariffs and deep and biting auto (and auto parts) tariffs. It’s tough to lay out a tariff playbook for investors right now, so our advice is to wait and see. Markets and corporate America will need time to digest the information and figure out their next move. As potential dip buyers, we’re not in a big hurry.

Heightened volatility and uncertainty in both financial markets and the broader economy present challenges and opportunities for investors. Understanding the fundamental differences between the strategic and tactical investment horizons through which an investor can face these challenges and approach these opportunities is essential for navigating these complex environments.

Earnings continued to come in better-than feared, but “tariff uncertainty” continued to get flagged on most conference calls. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates unchanged and stuck to its patient approach with monetary policy, despite notable downgrades to economic growth estimates and rising recession probabilities since their last meeting.

This week was one of the most volatile weeks in the history of the stock market. That excludes the historic two-day decline on Thursday and Friday the week before (April 3–4). The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% on Tuesday, April 8, surged 9.5% on Wednesday, April 9 (the third biggest up day since 1950), fell 3.5% on Thursday, April 10, and jumped 1.8% on Friday, April 11. The S&P 500 ended up nearly 6% for the week.

Trade uncertainty and nagging inflation made Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell walk a tightrope at the latest press conference.

Fourth quarter earnings season is nearly complete, and it has been a good one. S&P 500 companies grew profits more than 18% year over year, according to FactSet data, with mega cap technology and financial companies doing most of the heavy lifting (about seven points of growth came from each). The Magnificent Seven grew earnings by an average of 37% and financials earnings jumped 50%.

The municipal bond market faced significant volatility in April, driven by spillovers from a turbulent Treasury market. Treasury yields were pressured higher by rising inflation expectations; the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy stance, reduced foreign demand; hedge fund deleveraging, portfolio shifts toward cash, and structural illiquidity.

Inconsistency seems to be the only constant since tariffs were first announced. The White House’s continuous change in direction on trade policy has weighed on business sentiment gauges and left investors with limited visibility to buy the dip.

The U.S. Treasury market is entering a significant transition period in 2025, facing both structural adjustments and all-too-familiar policy discussions. As the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) shift from a zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) coincides with a substantial $7.5 trillion refinancing cycle, markets are also preparing for another round of debt ceiling negotiations.